ACOG published “Second-Trimester Abortion and Risk of Live Birth” in the June 2024 edition of The American Journal of Obstetrics and Gynecology, volume 230, issue 6. The Abortion Survivors Network created the following summary of this research.
Method: This was a retrospective cohort study of 13,777 abortions at 15-29 weeks gestation in Quebec hospitals between April 1, 1989, and March 31, 2021 (approx. 32 years). The rate of live births per 100 abortions was calculated. Adjusted log-binomial regression models were used to estimate risk ratios and 95% confidence intervals for the association of fetal and maternal characteristics with the probability of live birth.
Results: Overall, 11.2% of abortions resulted in a live birth. Specifically, labor induction abortions were associated with a 15.4% chance, while D&E abortions held a 0.2% chance of live birth. This aligns with ASN’s previous estimates of live births following surgical abortion.
Gestational weeks 20-24 showed the greatest likelihood for survival at 21.7%, compared to 3.4%, and 8.5%, for weeks 15-19 and 25-29 respectively. Maternal age also had an effect, as mothers under 25 were only 5.5% likely to see an abortion fail. Mothers 25-30 were 14.1%, and those 35 or older were 12.6% likely to see their abortion fail and their child survive.
Another significant indicator for survival was the time period the abortion was performed, with a clear increase in the rate of survivors in later years compared to earlier years. The years 1989-2000 saw a 4.1% chance, 2001-2010 a 10.2% chance, and 2011-2021 more than doubled the likelihood of born-alive survivors at 20.8%.
By referencing death certificates, it was determined that just 10% of survivors lived longer than 3 hours. However, only a quarter (24.5%) were admitted to the NICU and just 5.5% received palliative care.
Takeaway: While this study was conducted partially as a way to determine whether feticidal injection lowers the “risk of live birth,” (which it does by 57%) it also revealed in more concrete terms than ever before that babies survive abortion.
